There is a narrow path for that Opposition to have a majority within the 2019 Lok Sabha election. That route involves a split-mahagathbandhan strategy as opposed to a pre-poll nationwide grand alliance with ideologically inimical political parties, that could prove counter-productive.
For that Congress, a far more sensible tactic is always to nurture two parallel pre-poll national alliances. The very first will be a Congress-brought UPA front including the Left, NCP, DMK, JD(S), RJD, NC and smaller sized parties. This shrunken UPA today makes up about around 75 seats within the Lok Sabha.
Poll maths
The 2nd thread from the parallel grand alliance would comprise independent regional parties: SP, BSP, TMC, TDP along with other smaller sized outfits. Together they take into account 65-odd seats within the Lok Sabha.
The 2 strands from the UPA and also the federal front, thus, today, command about 140 Lok Sabha MPs - far lacking a big part.
What exactly are their prospects to mix 272 Lok Sabha seats within the 2019 general election?
Consider first the qualitative argument.
When the two strands get together prior to the poll to create an octopus-like, hydra-headed front with several strong-willed leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Akhilesh Yadav’s relatives, Lalu Prasad’s equally large family, Mayawati, K Chandrashekar Rao, Chandrababu Naidu, Sitaram Yechury and Sharad Pawar, an implosion can’t be eliminated.
However, when the two strands - UPA and also the federal front - contest individually however with seat adjustments, uniting publish-poll, their chances brighten.
Now think about the math.
When the Congress can’t breach the 100-seat mark in 2019, the UPA could finish track of under 130 seats notwithstanding the DMK’s likely sweep in Tamil Nadu.
Meanwhile, the government front is determined by the SP, BSP and TMC to usher in the large figures combined with the TDP and smaller sized parties.
Thus, the government front could finish track of around 120 seats, accumulated to 250 for that two alliances - tantalisingly lacking 272 seats inside a publish-poll bid to create a non-NDA, mega-coalition government.
However, when the two groupings contest the 2019 Lok Sabha election having a pre-poll mahagathbandhan, they might damage their prospects further for 2 reasons.
First, it will likely be seen as a ‘Modi in comparison to the Rest’ fight that could squeeze into the BJP’s electoral playbook.
Second, in key states (excluding UP) the mega-alliance partners could cannibalise each other’s votes.
Their joint seat tally may fall well below 250. Where performs this leave the BJP-brought NDA? Inside a quandary.
There’s little question the BJP is going to be hit in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Other weak spots are Haryana, Punjab and Delhi.
Neutral parties such as the BJD, TRS and AIADMK (though fatally weakened) could burnish the NDA’s figures although not by much. When the Congress-brought UPA and federal fronts garner 230-250 seats together and also the neutrals hold 25-50 seats in balance, the BJP-brought NDA will have barely 250-odd seats.
Hung Parliament
Inside a classically hung Parliament where two groupings have the identical quantity of seats and therefore are each lacking a parliamentary majority with a couple of dozen MPs, crossovers can occur. Probably the most likely targets for that NDA are TRS in Telangana and YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh. They might deliver 20-25 seats together and may be amenable to some modus vivendi using the BJP.
Exactly what do these permutations mean for Rahul Gandhi?
Senior UPA leaders such as the NCP’s Sharad Pawar, himself a dark horse for that top publishes, are unenthusiastic about Rahul as PM but could be convinced. The actual hurdles for Rahul lie inside the federal front.
The BSP has blown cold and hot over Rahul as PM. Mayawati sacked the vice-president of her party, Jai Prakash Singh, for declaring: “Had Rahul Gandhi appeared as if his father (Rajiv Gandhi), he might have had an opportunity of success in Indian politics but he switched out like his mother (Sonia Gandhi), who's a foreigner. His bloodstream is foreign. I will tell you with all of the surety that Rahul Gandhi can't ever flourish in Indian politics.”
Piecemeal alliance
Mayawati has stored her options open by refusing to complete piecemeal alliance handles the Congress.
In Rajasthan, Sachin Pilot is confident of the go-it-alone victory.
In Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh though, the Congress is interested in a seat-discussing alliance using the BSP to consolidate Dalit votes.
If push involves shove, however, Mayawati will back Rahul as PM to acquire plum posts once her party garners 20-odd Lok Sabha seats in UP, following an alliance using the SP and Congress.
With the track of 2024, Rahul though is ready to concede the best ministership in 2019 to anybody in the federal front - Mamata, Mayawati or perhaps a dark horse as lengthy as Modi is stored out.
The BJP is aware of this will forfeit near to 50-70 seats in UP, Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh.
It's banking on creating a number of that reduction in Odisha, the Northeast and West Bengal. When the BJP falls far lacking 272, Modi would like a spell within the Opposition. The UPA and also the federal front would then patch together 250-odd seats, form a minority government, quarrel within the prime ministership, as well as in under 2 yrs collapse underneath the weight that belongs to them contradictions.
Inside a 1996-98 redux, disenchanted voters would then elect the BJP to power in 2021 with Modi coming back as pm.
